New research prepared by Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander Institute predicts a swathe of negative impacts on the Scottish economy in the years following the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union.
It models the economic impact of Brexit for Scotland and the rest of the UK over a ten year period, and finds that Brexit is likely to have a negative impact on the Scottish economy even under the more optimistic scenarios considered.
Key findings of the report include:
· Under all modelled scenarios, Brexit is predicted to have a negative impact on Scotland’s economy.
· After 10 years, Scottish GDP is expected to be 2-3% lower than would otherwise be the case in the most optimistic ‘Norwegian scenario’ and 5% lower in the ‘WTO scenario’.
· Impacts on the rUK economy are more severe than those on Scotland, reflecting rUK’s greater dependence on exports to the EU.
· It could be argued that Brexit may make Scotland and rUK less attractive locations to live and work relative to the rest of the world.
The research paper outlines three different models reflecting the different types of settlement the UK might reach on leaving the EU.
The research paper can be found here...
The Scottish Parliament’s Financial Scrutiny Unit briefing on the report which summarises the results can be found here...
The Parliamentary Press Release can be found here...